Forum:2012-13 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season/SWIO 2
07S.FELLENG Tropical Depression 07 Okay, it looks like the South-West Indian Ocean is awake after taking a short nap from tropical disturbances. Does anyone currently predict a Moderate Tropical Storm Felleng? AndrewTalk To Me 20:44, January 26, 2013 (UTC) I'm actually calling at least a category one out of this before it runs into Madagascar on Tuesday. I think our first landfalling cyclone of the SWIO is about to unfold. Ryan1000 21:21, January 26, 2013 (UTC) Peressure slightly up to 1000 mbar, but the RSMC La Réunion still expects a tropical cyclone. AndrewTalk To Me 14:41, January 27, 2013 (UTC) Severe Tropical Storm Felleng Now named. However, drastic change in track forecast, now it's expected to move south before it ever reaches Madagascar. Ryan1000 21:48, January 28, 2013 (UTC) : I gotta felleng, that this storm is gonna be a good good storm. TONIGHT'S THE NIGHT, HE IS GOING TO BE A CATEGORY 4! (That's my hypothesis, I see him becoming an intense hurricane. Oof!) Raraah, Awesome Pony 23:13, January 28, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Felleng Currently undergoing rapid deepening, wouldn't be all that surprised if it briefly becomes a very intense tropical cyclone. Supportstorm (talk) 12:59, January 29, 2013 (UTC) Intense Tropical Cyclone Felleng Taking off... Ryan1000 17:15, January 30, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Felleng (2nd time) And back down. Ryan1000 12:53, February 2, 2013 (UTC) Moderate Tropical Storm Felleng (2nd time) Almost out... Ryan1000 10:27, February 3, 2013 (UTC) Extratropical Depression Ex-Felleng Out.Isaac829 17:58, February 3, 2013 (UTC) Yep, that's it. We might be in slumber for some time now, knowing that nothing is expected to develop in the near-future for the rest of the SHem. Ryan1000 22:18, February 3, 2013 (UTC) 08S.GINO Tropical Depression 08 New SWIO system, likely going to become Gino as it heads southward out to sea, becoming a C1/2 on the way. Ryan1000 10:41, February 11, 2013 (UTC) Moderate Tropical Storm Gino Now Gino. Ryan1000 14:33, February 11, 2013 (UTC) Severe Tropical Storm Gino Going up, though still a ways away from land. Ryan1000 14:52, February 12, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Gino Cat 1 now. Ryan1000 06:31, February 13, 2013 (UTC) Extratropical Depression Ex-Gino Down and out. Ryan1000 17:37, February 15, 2013 (UTC) 16S.HARUNA Basically a tropical depression now. GFS predicts that 94S will become a cyclone before making landfall on the very southern tip of Madagascar on the 21st. Supportstorm (talk) 03:29, February 18, 2013 (UTC) I have a feeling this area of disturbed weather will become Haruna sometime later today or tomorrow. However, while the GFS has this hitting Madagascar in 3 days time, the ECMWF keeps this in the channel for at least 5 days or so until making landfall as a powerful storm. Ryan1000 13:43, February 18, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Disturbance 09 La Reunion seems to be following the ECMWF model, which I wouldn't be surprised if it takes that path. The last week it's done nothing more than swirl in circles in that channel. Supportstorm (talk) 16:06, February 18, 2013 (UTC) Moderate Tropical Storm Haruna Now a MTS. Forecast to head towards the southern end of Madagascar (as said earlier), as a strong TS or a TC. Ryan1000 00:57, February 20, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Haruna It's really pretty looking on satellite, but unfortunately it's also looking like it will be making landfall as a upper Cat. 3 or minimal Cat. 4 cyclone. Supportstorm (talk) 03:31, February 21, 2013 (UTC) : Haruna might peak where it is now or it could become a stronger cat 3, but I don't think it will become a cat 4. Haruna is also featuring a very large eye, almost 50 miles across. It's probrably going to end up making landfall near Toliara sometime later today or tomorrow. Ryan1000 18:41, February 21, 2013 (UTC) : Now making landfall at cat 2 or 3 not sure.Allanjeffs 03:33, February 22, 2013 (UTC) ::: Haruna made landfall near Toliara (as I said earlier), as a 105 mph category 2 cyclone last night, just weakening from it's category 3 peak. Looks like the GFS nailed this one right on the head. The Euro was calling for Haruna to stall in the Mozambique Channel for about 5 days and make landfall in southern Madagascar as a category 5 monster. Looks like that never panned out. Hopefully impacts weren't too bad for Madagascar, emergency preparations have greatly improved in that country over the past several years. It still remains a problem in Mozambique, but hopefully they'll be as good as them in the future. Ryan1000 16:27, February 22, 2013 (UTC) Extratropical Disturbance Ex-Haruna Wow, that was fast. Died out already. At least one person was reported to have died in Madagascar thus far. MFR sees it briefly reintensifying into a MTS before going away for good. Ryan1000 12:07, February 23, 2013 (UTC) : JTWC is still making advisories.Isaac829 19:34, February 24, 2013 (UTC) 17S.IMELDA Tropical Disturbance 10 First storm in a while.--Isaac829 20:03, April 6, 2013 (UTC) Maybe this will become something big? AndrewTalk To Me 16:36, April 7, 2013 (UTC) : Somewhat, according to GFS, less powerful according to the Euro, but both models turn it southeast well away from Madagascar. Looks like this could very well be the SHem's last storm of 2012-13. Should this become named, it would be Imelda. Ryan1000 00:32, April 8, 2013 (UTC) Moderate Tropical Storm Imelda Now Imelda. Ryan1000 13:02, April 8, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Imelda Now a cat. 1. Ryan1000 10:40, April 10, 2013 (UTC) Moderate Tropical Storm Imelda Dying down... Ryan1000 13:05, April 16, 2013 (UTC) Finally dying after so long.Isaac829 00:08, April 17, 2013 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Imelda Farewell, Imelda. Ryan1000 12:51, April 17, 2013 (UTC)